How Much Will the West Sacrifice for Ukraine?
As tensions between Ukraine and Russia continue to rise, many residents of the Northern Ukraine and the Crimea are asking the same question: how much will the West sacrifice for Ukraine? While the European Union and the United States have imposed sanctions on Russia and expressed support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, true support for the former Soviet state remains unclear. In a troubled region where violence has been the backdrop for decades, will the West truly put its money where its mouth is to protect Ukraine?
History of the Ukraine-Russia Conflict
The modern-day conflict between Ukraine and Russia dates back to the Soviet Union’s breakup in 1991, when Ukraine declared its independence. Since then, the relationship between the two countries has been often strained over a host of issues, including the expansion of NATO onto Ukraine’s doorstep and Moscow’s attempts to weaken Ukraine’s economy through gas pricing wars.
In 2014, aggressive posturing by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Crimean peninsula prompted the pro-Western Ukrainian government to declare martial law, causing a major crisis between the two countries. Since then, the West has imposed economic sanctions on Russia in an effort to pressure them to back away from Ukraine’s borders.
EU Sanctions on Russia
In response to the crisis in Ukraine, the European Union enforced economic sanctions on Russia, which include a range of measures such as asset freezes, arms embargoes and visa restrictions. While these sanctions are intended to pressure Russia into compliance, many EU nations have vigorously opposed them, including Germany, who has been accused of going soft on Russian aggression in order to protect its interests in the region.
US and NATO’s Role in Ukraine
The United States has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine’s sovereignty and is a major proponent for further sanctions against Russia and the enforcement of territorial integrity within Ukraine. The US has also supported the deployment of NATO forces in the region. This has become a source of contention, with some experts arguing that NATO’s presence in the region has only served to provoke further tension between Russia and Ukraine.
Currently, there are around 1,800 NATO personnel in Ukraine and the US has sent $26 million in aid to the country. While these actions have expressed the US’ commitment to Ukraine, it is still unclear to what extent the US will continue to advocate on its behalf or if it is prepared to go to further lengths in order to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Current Situation in the Ukraine
The Ukraine-Russia conflict has become increasingly volatile in recent years, with violence that includes a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian-backed separatists and ongoing human rights abuses. Ukraine’s economy has suffered greatly from the conflict, with its currency nearly collapsing in 2020, leaving the country’s people to bear the brunt of Russia’s aggression.
The Ukrainian government faces a difficult task of maintaining its sovereignty against Russian aggression and ongoing corruption, while also attempting to shore up its economy in a difficult global climate.
The Impact of the West
The conflict in Ukraine has impacted multiple aspects of Europe’s economic, political and security landscape, including energy dependence on Russia, the spread of its corruption and the disruption of Europe’s security balance. These threats, combined with Ukraine’s strategic proximity to other European countries, have increased the pressure on the West to support Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression.
On the other hand, extending additional military and financial assistance to Ukraine is a risky move for Western countries, particularly as they grapple with their own economic challenges. Furthermore, while economic sanctions have been effective in curbing Russian expansion in Ukraine, they have had a negative impact on the EU’s own economy, in addition to straining relations between East and West.
What Lies Ahead?
Despite their reluctance, ultimately the West will most likely continue to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. While direct military intervention is unlikely, the Western world could abstain from lifting sanctions against Russia and provide additional support to Ukraine’s government in the form of economic assistance and reforms. Additionally, strengthening the country’s military capabilities with the support of the West − while controversial − could prove to be a powerful deterrent against further Russian intervention.
Ultimately, the West will have to decide how much it is willing to commit to ensuring Ukraine’s independence and protecting its citizens from Russian influence. In a complicated geopolitical situation from which there is no clear exit, the West must decide carefully how much it will risk for Ukraine.
