Will a Third-Party Candidate Ever Win the White House?
With the values of the two major US political parties seeming further apart than ever, voters have been left wondering if there is any alternative in the next presidential election other than the Democratic and Republican candidates. In this article, we’ll take a look at whether a third-party candidate can ever win a US presidential election and examine what the chances of that success might be.
What Is a Third-Party Candidate?
Before jumping into the prospects of a third-party candidate winning the White House, let’s define what a third-party candidate is in the US. A third-party candidate is anyone other than the two major US political parties, the Democrat and Republican. These candidates can come from a wide range of political associations and ideologies.
A third-party candidate may run independently or become associated with one of the many “third-party” movements that have arisen over the years. Many third-party movements focus on a single area of concern, such as environmentalism or a single issue, such as abortion. It’s important to note that third-party candidates do not control their own party and have a much lower chance of success than their major party counterparts.
History of Third-Party Success
In the history of the United States, third-party candidates have rarely seen presidential success. In modern times, the last notable success of a third-party candidate was in 1992 when Ross Perot, running under the banner of the “Reform Party”, won nearly 19% of the popular vote and took a surprising 37 electoral college votes. Despite this success, Perot was still unable to unseat incumbent president, Bill Clinton.
When focusing on the history of successful third-party candidates, traditionally most of the success of a third-party candidate has been to “split” their constituency and then spoil the chances of a majority victory of the two major parties (effectively becoming a “spoiler” in the election). This can be seen in the 1824, 1848 and 1992 elections.
It is important to note that although a third-party candidate may have a portion of success, it is highly unlikely that they will be able to secure a majority of either the popular vote or electoral college.
Potential for Third-Party Success
With the rise of the current two-party system, third-party candidates have seen a decrease in their overall chances of success. This isn’t to say that a third-party candidate could not secure a majority if the conditions were favorable.
In today’s era it is more likely for a third-party candidate to have success by gaining a significant portion of the vote but not a majority. This has been seen recently in the 2016 presidential election where Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson received around 3.3 million votes and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received over 1 million votes.
In some cases, it could be argued that third-party candidates can actually reach the White House. This argument states that third-party candidates do not need to reach a majority to be successful, but just “tip the scales” in their favor with enough votes to swing the election in their favor.
Reform Proposals
In order to create a more effective voting system and increase the chances of success for a third-party candidate, some have proposed a number of different proposals for reform.
Ranked Choice Voting
The first reform proposal is the implementation of ranked choice voting (RCV). This system, sometimes referred to as “instant runoff voting”, allows the voter to rank their preferred candidates in order of preference and then count the votes accordingly. This system would ensure that all votes count towards the winner and could play a role in electing a third-party candidate without the need for them to gain a majority of the votes.
Alternative Voting System
An alternative voting system (AVS) would involve allowing voters to mark multiple candidates on their ballots with a points system. This would essentially allow voters to rank their favorite candidates and allocate points accordingly. For example, a candidate who receives the most votes would be rolled forward with all the points they received and the next highest vote-getter would be rolled forward with all the points they received.
Proponents of AVS argue that this system would be more representative and result in a clearer picture of the electorate, potentially helping to create more viable third-party candidates.
Primary System Reform
Some have proposed reforming the primary system in the US by introducing a viability threshold. This would mean that any candidates who could not reach the threshold would be ruled out of the race. This would be beneficial in creating more competition and preventing unqualified candidates from presenting themselves before the public.
Crossover Candidates
Finally, one of the more recent suggestions is the possibility of “crossover candidates”. This would involve a major-party candidate selecting a running mate from a minor or third party, which would form an official “unity ticket” between the two parties. This could potentially present the two parties as having some semblance of unity and increase the chances of a crossover voter success.
Overall, the chances of a third-party candidate winning the White House are slim. The current two-party system makes it difficult for third-parties to gain the electoral college votes or the popular vote needed to become victory.
Considering that no third-party candidate has achieved a majority success since 1856, it is clear why most consider a win unattainable for these candidates. However, with the implementation of a variety of reform propositions and the potential for “crossover candidates”, anything is possible.
If a third-party candidate can make it to the ballot and pick up enough of their respective brand of “crossover” supporter, they may still stand a chance at the White House.
