The 2018 midterm elections were a major victory for the Democratic Party and an embarrassment for the Republicans. After two consecutive years of Republican control of the House, Senate, and White House, the Democrats managed to regain their majority in the House and chip away at the Republican Senate majority. This was thanks to the Democrats successfully reversing the Republican “red wave” that had developed in the 2016 election and the first year of President Trump’s term.
In this article, we’ll explore the various ways in which the Democrats avoided a red wave in the 2018 midterms. We’ll start by looking at how the Democrats successfully flip red seats to blue in close races, and then consider the larger changes that coalesced to ensure the party held onto their majority in the House and weakened the Republican majority in the Senate.
Flipping Red Seats to Blue in Close Races
The Democrats were able to pick up several seats that were held by Republicans. This was thanks to the efforts of highly competitive and organized Democratic campaigns. These campaigns focused on connecting with local voters and ensuring their message was heard.
The midterm elections provided several examples of Democratic candidates winning over traditionally red districts. Here are three key examples where candidacies flipped Republican-held districts to Democratic majorities:
- The Florida 26th – Donna Shalala
Donna Shalala was the Democratic Party nominee in Florida’s 26th Congressional District. This traditionally Republican district had been reliably voting red for decades. However, thanks to Shalala’s appeal and the deep concern among her supporters about the Trump administration, she was able to narrowly win the district in 2018.
- The Minnesota 8th – Joe Radinovich
Joe Radinovich was the Democratic candidate for Congress in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District. This district also had a long history of being reliably Republican. But Radinovich’s campaign was effective in rallying the local Democratic base, and he was able to defeat Republican candidate Pete Stauber and flip the seat.
- The Pennsylvania 14th – Conor Lamb
Conor Lamb was the Democratic candidate in the Pennsylvania 14th Congressional District. This was one of the most closely-watched races heading into the midterms, and it showed how Lamb was able to thread the needle between the Republican-leaning base of the district and the left-leaning views of the surrounding metropolitan area. He was able to narrowly win despite the fact that the district had been held by Republicans since its founding.
These three examples stood out as particularly striking, but they were just the tip of the iceberg when it came to the Democrats successfully flipping red held seats to blue in 2018.
Demographic Trends: Exploring Shifting Voter Allegiances
To understand the demographic changes that created the conditions for a Democratic recovery from the Republican red wave, we’ll need to look beyond the individual races. We can start by looking at the changing makeup of the electorate.
The 2016 election marked the first time that the percentage of younger people voting in a presidential election eclipsed the percentage of people over 65. This isn’t to suggest that younger people overwhelmingly voted for Democratic candidates, as millennials have historically been largely split on partisan grounds. However, it does illustrate that the older, more conservative voting bloc is gradually giving way to a more progressive voting bloc.
Similarly, we can look at the increasing numbers of non-white voters who are now participating in elections. The number of Hispanic voters has steadily increased with each election cycle, while the number of African-American, Asian-American, and other non-white voters has also increased in 2018. This led to a noticeable drop in the Republican advantage among white female voters.
The main takeaway here is that the voter makeup of the United States is changing. This changing demographic, combined with a growing distaste with the Trump administration and its policies amongst the electorate, has provided a ripe political environment for the Democratic Party to capture more and more congressional districts.
Mobilizing Democratic Grassroots Efforts and Capitalizing on Social Issues
A crucial part of the Democrats’ success was their mobilization of grassroots efforts. Numerous flagship campaigns like Beto O’Rourke in Texas, Stacey Abrams in Georgia, and Andrew Gillum in Florida acted as a rallying point for the Democratic base and gave voters a reason to turn out to the polls.
The Democrats also succeeded in capitalizing on key social issues. For many, the 2018 midterm elections were seen as a referendum on the Trump administration and the Republican policies that had backed it. This was evidenced by the increasing numbers of women, minorities, and young people who voted, as well as the passing of several state-level ballot initiatives, such as the legalization of recreational marijuana in Michigan and the passing of referenda for reform to the environment, healthcare, and education in several other states.
These initiatives provided voters on the left with a renewed sense of enthusiasm, which translated into greater voter engagement. This allowed the Democrats to pick up several swing districts and successfully stave off the anticipated Republican red wave in the 2018 midterms.
The 2018 midterm elections showed that the Democrats had effectively built a defense to the Republican red wave of the 2016 election. This defense was thanks to the efforts of successful Democratic campaigns, strong mobilization of grassroots efforts, and the changing makeup of the American electorate.
With retaking the House and weakening the Republican majority in the Senate, the Democrats were able to regain control of the legislative process, at least for the immediate future. This laid the foundation for the 2020 election and the Democrats’ ability to capitalize on the successful strategies of 2018.
