What Was the Point of the Syria ‘Withdrawal’?
On October 6th, 2019, President Donald Trump announced the US military would be “pulling back” from their positions in northeast Syria. From the announcement, it appeared Trump had decided to unilaterally withdraw US forces in the region without any clear plan or objective. The move came as a shock to political leaders in both the US and abroad, as Trump had just green-lighted a Turkish offensive against US-backed Kurdish forces only days before.
Reactions to the move have been highly critical, but there remains a lack of clarity around what purpose the withdrawal was actually intended to serve. Understanding what the point of the Syria ‘withdrawal’ was requires looking into the details of the move, as well as the international situation before and after it.
Intentions and Implications of the Syria ‘Withdrawal’
When Trump initially made the decision to pull out of northeast Syria, the details of the move were still unclear. It wasn’t immediately definitive just how far away US forces would be moving, or how many troops would be brought back home.
On October 11th, the US, Turkey, and Russia reached a ceasefire agreement, which provided further detail regarding the withdrawal. According to the deal, US forces would be pulling out of a 140-mile area bordering Turkey and relocating them near the Syrian-Iraqi border.
In addition, the agreement calls for all of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to vacate the specified area. Despite the ceasefire, many have been critical of this aspect of the deal, as the SDF have been the strongest US ally on the ground in the fight against ISIS in Syria.
Trump Has Been Exerting Pressure on US Allies
When looking at the ultimate goal of the withdrawal, it becomes evident that the move was not just a reaction to the Turkish offensive, but also part of an overarching strategy on the part of the Trump administration. This strategy has been to exert significant pressure on US allies urging them to take responsibility for their own defense and security, while decreasing the American role in global affairs.
This pressure has been made clear in many different ways. The Trump administration has cut off aid to the SDF, elected to abandon Kurdish forces fighting against Turkish forces, and is pushing for NATO allies to increase their own military spending, among other examples.
This pressure-driven strategy has not just been aimed at the US’s allies in Syria, however. Trump has levied similar pressure on US allies in Europe, as well as other countries around the world. This consistent trend of “America First” policy, paired with reduced US military presence overseas, appears to be part of a larger attempt by the Trump administration to reduce US involvement in the global arena.
Is the Syria ‘Withdrawal’ Aimed at Forcing Peace?
Despite the intense criticism the Syria ‘withdrawal’ has received, there are those who have argued that Trump’s intention with the move was ultimately to force a peace settlement between Turkey, Syria, and the SDF. According to this line of thinking, Trump is trying to pressure the involved parties to reach a peaceful resolution that goes beyond a simple ceasefire agreement.
Of course, whether or not this is actually the case remains to be seen. It is still unclear how the situation in the region will evolve in the coming months, and whether the ‘withdrawal’ will ultimately be seen to be a success or a failure.
What are the Long-Term Implications of the ‘Withdrawal’?
Regardless of what Trump’s intentions behind the Syria ‘withdrawal’ may be, there are likely to be some long-term implications as a result of the move. These include but are not limited to:
• The US’s perceived commitment to its allies and deterring enemies may have been weakened
• The decrease in US presence in the Middle East could lead to a power vacuum, with potential consequences depending on which actors fill the space
• Turkey will likely continue to expand its influence in the region, potentially encroaching on the sovereignty of other countries
• Kurdish forces may be significantly weakened, giving the self-declared caliphate of ISIS an opportunity to regroup
• The possibility of a peaceful resolution in the Middle East could be further diminished, potentially leading to an escalation of military conflict
There is still much uncertainty surrounding the ultimate purpose of Trump’s decision to unilaterally move US forces out of northeast Syria. However, it appears that this move may have been part of a larger strategy to exert pressure on US allies and to decrease US involvement in global affairs. In any case, the long-term implications of this decision will likely be significant and wide-reaching, and it remains to be seen how the situation will unfold in the Middle East in the coming months.
