In the aftermath of the US withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, there is growing concern among political observers that a new deal between Iran and the US may no longer be possible. The timeline of events leading up to the present state of affairs shows a history of numerous international attempts to reign in Iran’s nuclear ambitions, leading to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 or the Iran Nuclear Deal. But with the US’ withdrawal from the plan in 2018 and the reimposition of sanctions, there is a growing prospect of conflict between the two countries. Is there still a deal to be done?
Background on the Iran Nuclear Deal
The Iran nuclear deal, or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was a historic agreement reached in 2015 by the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) and Iran on the country’s nuclear program. The P5+1 would remove economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear activities.
The agreement sought to limit Iran’s nuclear work to peaceful purposes only and to reduce the pathways by which it could produce nuclear weapons. It was also accompanied by a United Nations Security Council resolution that incorporated key elements of the agreement, which was intended to be legally binding.
The agreement was seen as a major diplomatic breakthrough. U.S. President Barack Obama hailed it as a “diplomatic victory,” calling it “a good deal.”
US Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal
However, despite initial optimism, the nuclear deal soon became ensnared by the domestic politics of its signatories. U.S. President Donald Trump had long been a vocal critic of the deal and campaigned on a platform of replacing it with a more stringent agreement. He eventually followed through with his threat in May 2018 and withdrew the U.S. from the deal, reimposing economic sanctions on Iran and accusing it of engaging in malign activities in the Middle East.
The other members of the P5+1— Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany—remained committed to the deal, although their efforts to uphold it were hampered by the US’ withdrawal, as the Trump administration threatened to impose sanctions on any companies that continued to do business with Iran.
The Iranian Response
In response to the US’ withdrawal, Iran announced it was no longer bound by the restrictions of the deal, and began to increase its nuclear activities. This prompted the other members of the P5+1 to join together to issue a joint statement expressing their “deep regret and concern” over Iran’s violation of the terms of the deal.
At the same time, Iran began to push for compensation for the economic losses it suffered due to the US’ withdrawal—which impact the entire Iranian economy. Iran has also refused to engage in talks with the US unless all sanctions imposed on the country are first removed.
Can a New Agreement Be Reached?
This all raises the question of whether a new deal can still be negotiated. Proponents of a new deal point to the fact that the 2015 agreement successfully reined in Iran’s nuclear weapons program and that its terms remain popular with the Iranian people. They also argue that continued negotiations are still possible as the other members of the P5+1 remain committed to the terms of the agreement.
However, there are also those who are more pessimistic. US-Iran tensions have been ratcheting up since the US withdrew from the deal, with both sides becoming increasingly bellicose and hostile towards each other. The Iranian regime is also facing an economic crisis due to the US’ sanctions and is unlikely to agree to any deal that does not provide immediate relief from those.
Moreover, although there are still those within the US government who favor negotiating with Iran, President Trump has remained resolute in his stance that the deal should not be rejoined and that he will not relent on sanctions until Iran meets a long list of demands.
Finally, there is the view that even if a new nuclear deal could be reached, it’s far from certain that it would be honored this time around. Despite the initial assessment that the terms of the 2015 agreement meant Iran could not produce a nuclear weapon, President Trump has since claimed it was “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into.”
The future of a new deal between the US and Iran remains uncertain. The current situation is a far cry from the initial optimism of the 2015 agreement, with both sides seemingly unwilling to back down and the wisdom of the 2015 agreement being called into question. Nevertheless, there remains a possibility of a new agreement—if enough common ground can be found between the two sides.
