Is a Democratic Wipeout Inevitable?
Recent elections have demonstrated a growing surge in Republican victories at state, local and national levels, leading many to question if a Democratic wipeout—or a complete Republican control of government—is inevitable. With this heightened sense of political polarization across the United States, let’s take a look at the probability of a Republican-led sweep and what it would mean for democracy.
What Is a Democratic Wipeout?
A Democratic wipeout—or a Republican sweep—is a complete Republican control of politics where the Republicans gain full power over government, including executive, legislative, judicial, and state branches. This means both the state legislature and governor’s office would be dominated by Republicans, in addition to having a Republican-majority in Congress. Republicans would have control of both the president’s office and the Supreme Court, with Republican names appointed to regulatory agencies and federal judges. All of this would lead to a dominant Republican-held policymaking platform, with decisions likely to shape the face of the country for decades.
How Inevitable Is It?
At the moment, Republican control is a very real possibility, as many of the next competitive elections appear to be leaning towards red. Although Democrats still currently hold the majority of state legislative chambers and governorships around the country, Republicans are closing the gap and even took a slight lead when it came to governorships in 2018. There was a further pushback at the polls during the November 2020 election when several states went blue. However, nationwide, Republicans have become increasingly successful at utilizing backyarding, regional divisions, and endorsements to secure more wins, creating fear of a Republican control of government.
What Could This Mean for Democracy?
A Republican-led sweep would mean that key aspects of contemporary progressive policy—like healthcare reform, women’s rights reforms, support for immigrant rights and environmental protection—could be dismantled. Furthermore, because of their majority control, Republicans would have the power to appoint Supreme Court Justices, further enabling them to shape powerfully conservative policies for decades. Moreover, a shift away from democracy and increased voter suppression would become more likely, with the Republican party likely to pass restrictive laws and use gerrymandering to maintain their power.
Current Political Polarization
To gain an understanding of the current political climate and the likelihood of a Republican sweep, it’s important to understand some of the key factors creating such a large political divide. These factors include increased racial tension, greater distrust of political institutions, and the use of both media and illegal channels to try and shape and bankrupt campaigns in favor of one specific party.
Racial Tension
Racial tension has been an ongoing factor driving the political polarization in the United States. Racial tensions have been rising due to several political decisions implemented under the current president that have targeted both naturalized and undocumented immigrants of color. This has created a greater rift within both parties, with the Republican party becoming increasingly attractive to a more xenophobic base of voters.
Greater Distrust of Political Institutions
American trust in political institutions is the lowest it has ever been. Political scientists have found that the public’s view of Washington and the two leading political parties have declined over the past few years. This could be exacerbated by the current president, who has taken a hardline stance against regulating campaign finance and lobbying groups that has created an environment of confusion and distrust for many Americans.
Use of Media and Channeling Money
The increased political divide has also been fueled by the polarization of Media streams. Americans are increasingly divided when it comes to where they get their news, with conservatives turning to Fox News and liberals turning to MSNBC. This can create an even larger divide between Americans, as those who are exposed to more liberal or conservative streams are more likely to hold similar values. Moreover, campaigns have been investing large sums of money into digital platforms, as well as channelling large sums of money from unknown sources, creating further confusion and distrust amongst the public.
Impact of the Midterm Elections
The 2018 midterms were seen as a referendum on the Trump administration and displayed the political instability of the current period. In the lead up to the midterms, Democrats gained control of the US House of Representatives, while Republicans held onto their majority in the Senate. Statistically, these results are in line with what has happened historically at midterms, as an in-power party typically loses control of one chamber of Congress. However, Democrats had higher hopes as they looked to take back control of both houses.
What Does It All Mean?
The current political climate in the United States is tense. The overall likelihood of a Republican sweep is difficult to assess, as successes in state races and the November 2020 election prove that the political landscape is fluid. Moreover, citizens must remain vigilant during this period of heightened tension, to ensure that campaign finance, media campaigns and partisan politics don’t infringe upon democratic processes. Despite the prospect of a Republican sweep, Americans still have considerable power to shape the future of this country through conscientious voting. Only time will tell what the future will bring.
